In 2020,China's economic territory will again undergo great changes.
For a long time,marked by the Hu Huanyong Line,China's east-west economy has shown a bipolar development trend,and the"east-west gap"is widely known.
However,from the beginning of the 2010s,the economy in the Midwest accelerated upward,and its weight in the national economic map continued to increase,and the“east-west gap”has been shrinking.
In contrast,the northern region,especially the northeast region,is facing a downward trend regardless of economic growth rate or economic proportion.
This round of economic censuses has exacerbated this situation.The south is generally flooded,the northern areas are generally facing squeeze water,and the gap between the north and the south is widening.
It can be said that the regional economic gap in China is changing from the"east-west gap"to the"north-south gap",which will affect the national economic structure of the province in the next decade.
01 Squeeze water in the north,increase water in the south
Last year,China conducted the fourth national economic census.
This census revised the GDP in 2018.The national GDP increased by 18.972 trillion yuan,an increase of 2.1%,reaching 91.9 trillion yuan.
Although the economic cake has expanded by 1.9 trillion,not every place has a chance to enjoy.On the contrary,some provinces are even facing a new round of squeezing water.
This is the revised increase and decrease of provinces'GDP in 2018:
It is not difficult to see that with the exception of Beijing,Henan,and Xinjiang,the GDP increase basically belongs to the southern region.Except for Guangxi and Hunan,the reductions are basically in northern provinces.
Among them,the six provinces with the largest increase:
Anhui(+4004 billion),Shanghai(+333.1 billion),Yunnan(+299.9 billion),Fujian(+288.3 billion),Beijing(+278.6 billion),Guangdong(+266.6 billion).
The northern regions are generally facing water crowding.The six provinces with the largest reductions are:
Shandong(-98.2 billion),Tianjin(-544.6 billion),Jilin(-38.2 billion),Hebei(-351.5 billion),Heilongjiang(-351.5 billion),Liaoning(-1804 billion).
It can be seen that in northern areas,except Beijing,Henan,Xinjiang,etc.,other areas generally face water crowding.The six provinces with the largest GDP revision reductions are all northern provinces,and the three northeastern provinces are all in the list.
02 Economic growth rate:South is generally higher than North
This is the GDP ranking of provinces and cities in 2019:
It is also not difficult to see that of the 10 provinces with the highest GDP,only Shandong and Henan are in the north,and the others are in the south.(See"The first GDP breaks through 10 trillion!No more suspense in the first province of the economy")
Of the 10 provinces with the lowest GDP,only Tibet,Hainan,and Guizhou are in the south,while Tibet and Guizhou are strictly speaking in the west,and other regions are in the north.
This is the ranking of provinces and cities'actual GDP growth rate in 2019:
The 6 provinces with the highest actual growth rate:
The 6 provinces with the lowest actual growth rate:
Overall,of the 10 provinces and cities with the highest actual growth rate,only Henan is in the north,and the other 9 are in the south.
Of the 10 provinces and cities with the lowest actual growth rate,only Guangxi,Shanghai,and Hainan are in the south,and the other seven are in the north.
03 The economic center of gravity moves south,the proportion of the north decreases
The shift of the national economic center to the south has become the general trend.
A few days ago,Qiushi published a heavy article stating:
The Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and other regions have initially embarked on a high-quality development track.The growth of some northern provinces has slowed,and the national economic center of gravity has moved further south.(Refer to"The 4 regions,10 cities were named")
The data shows that the proportion of the northern economy dropped from 45.8%at the highest point to 38.5%in 2018.
In 2012,the northern economy accounted for 45.8%of the country's total,reaching its highest point.Since 2013,this proportion has gradually declined,and by 2018 it was only 38.5%,a decrease of 7.3 percentage points.
The Northeast region is more obvious.
At the beginning of reform and opening up,in 1978,the volume of the three provinces in the Northeast accounted for 13.98%of the national economy,and Dalian,Shenyang,and Harbin ranked among the top ten national GDP.
At the time,Shenzhen was still a small fishing village,with Chengdu,Suzhou,and Hangzhou all opening in the top ten.
However,in the past 40 years,the share of the Northeast economy has fallen to 6.38%,which is half of that at the highest point.Needless to say,it is difficult to find the figure of the northeast city in the top ten.
04 trillion GDP cities:only 4 cities in the north are shortlisted
Compared with the total GDP,trillion-GDP cities can more clearly see the gold content of the regional economy.
In 2019,Foshan's GDP broke trillions,and it officially entered the national trillion GDP club.So far,the GDP of 17 cities in China has exceeded one trillion.
These 17 trillion GDP cities are mainly concentrated in the South,while only 4 cities in the North are shortlisted:Beijing,Tianjin,Qingdao,Zhengzhou.
05 Population increase:Peacocks are still flying southeast
Peacocks fly southeast,which is more obvious in recent years.
The increase in population is a key signal of urban attractiveness.Where do people go?Which is the hot spot for economic development.
This is the population increase of major cities in China in 2018:
Among the top ten cities in terms of population increase,only Xi'an and Zhengzhou belong to the northern cities.Among the top 20 cities in terms of population increase,only four cities,Xi'an,Zhengzhou,Qingdao and Jinan,are located in the north.
The same is true in provinces.
06 From east to west,what happened?
Why is the gap between North and South constantly widening?
Over the past 40 years,China's urban landscape has undergone at least three major reshuffles.
The first round of shuffling is the end of heavy industry and the rise of coastal open economy;
The second round of reshuffle came from the 4 trillion investment and the rise of the new economy;
The third round of shuffling is driven by central cities,metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations.
These three rounds of reshuffle have created the rise of coastal cities,central and western provinces,and strong provincial capitals.
Before the reform and opening up,resource-based cities were important,and whether coal or petroleum resources were basically concentrated in the north,this is why the northern cities dominated the GDP list more than 40 years ago.
With the deepening of reform and opening up,and China's accession to the WTO,the eastern coastal cities began to rise.
Guangdong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Fujian and other places have taken the lead in the transformation of the manufacturing industry and entered the global industrial chain and value chain.The economy is characterized by marketization and globalization.Peacocks fly southeast and become a temporary choice.
In recent years,with the growing national strength,large investments characterized by infrastructure have covered the whole country,the central and western regions have received more financial transfers,and the"eight vertical and eight horizontal"high-speed rail plans have gradually landed,these provinces have used this to supplement transportation Short board with infrastructure.
Today,Guangxi's high-speed rails,even in the corner,are among the top three in the country,and the Guizhou Expressway,which is among the 100,000 mountains,is already well-connected.The increase in infrastructure investment will undoubtedly quickly boost the GDP of the western region.
At the same time,as the demographic dividend subsided,China began to face industrial transformation and upgrading.
The southeastern coastal provinces represented by Guangdong took the lead in marching into high-tech industries,while the mid-western populous provinces with labor advantages have undertaken labor-intensive industries transformed from the coastal areas,so the growth rate of industries continues to soar and the economy The water rises.
07 North-South gap,where is the road?
Can the North catch up with the South?
A major problem facing the northern economy is that,with the exception of Beijing,the pillar industries of most northern provinces are too heavy and too traditional.
In the north,the proportion of heavy industry,traditional industry and resource-based industries is significantly higher than that of the south.However,in the high-tech industries such as the Internet,biomedicine,and electronic technology,it is unable to cope with the competitive landscape of the post-demographic dividend era.
In addition,the transfer of national strategy,the degree of marketization,the degree of activity of the private economy,and the advantages and disadvantages of the business environment also play a decisive role.
However,the situation has some new changes.
Today,China has established seven national strategies:
"One Belt and One Road",Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development,development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta,construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin,and comprehensively deepening reform and opening up in Hainan.
In the future,Northeast China will be fully revitalized and is expected to be among them.A high-level article not long ago has clearly pointed out:During the"14th Five-Year Plan"period,there are new strategic measures for the revitalization of Northeast China.
These strategies are not just focused on the South,but on the coordinated development of North and South.Each region has its own major national strategy.
Although the economic center of gravity will also accelerate to the south,this is not a new round of development opportunities for some central cities and urban agglomerations in the north.
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